Wednesday, 29 May 2013

Index will reach 50,000 in the year 2017- Written on 4th Feb 2013

Stock market touched an all time high of 22,000 index in the year 2008. But, just after that in 2009, it collapsed to 7,500 approximately. In no time it dramatically recovered after 9 months and crossed 15,000. After the low in the stock market that was observed in 2009, today index is range bound and market is revolving between 15,000 and 18,000 since three years.

It seems the turning point of the Indian economy was in 1990. Somehow it is observed that the year 2012 has also faced similar situations but at a more developed level as there was a tremendous growth in the Indian economy from the year 1990 to 2012.

It was observed that in the past five months, index reached 20,000 and it is stabilizing at the same point. It seems to be the kissing distance from its all time high in 2008. There is no doubt that the economy has grown above 6 per cent year on year continuously from 2009.  It has made a range in the higher level of the index. 22,000 and 7,500, both were extreme points even though index has made an edge above 15,000 for more than three years.

It is estimated that at this point market will consolidate at an index point between 18,000 to 22,000 for next 12-18 months. After that it is likely to break free violently and make a substantial high of more than 22,000 approximately. I feel that by the year 2017, index will touch 50,000.

From a different point of view, violent equity bull run has started all over the world from 2003 followed by crude, real estate, bullion and currency.  Each of these saw a period of rise and then finally busted. It is estimated that from here the investments will be diverted back to equity considering currencies as the last bull market. Again a new cycle will start in the bull market. I feel that it has already started which should not last less than the tenure of five years of last bull market from the year 2003 to 2008. 

PS: Written on 4th Feb 2013

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